Theoretically, elections could be held on time in July/August 2018 provided a number of challenges are overcome. Will the ECP be able to prepare credible electoral rolls on time considering that if re-checking of the census data conducted in some constituencies is required to determine the accuracy (or otherwise)? Incorrect or flawed data for any reason, would require additional work. The drawing up of new constituencies is already the cause of resentment and anger among political parties, it stands to reason that the process must be transparent and above board without controversy. This will allow the electoral process to go on smoothly and create minimum room for agitation and protest before, during and after the election.
The ongoing controversy relating to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his immediate family members adds to the problems, this will multiply near their almost certain conviction. Ever since the Supreme Court (SC) disqualified the then PM and ordered a criminal investigation into his immediate family members over corruption allegations in July this year, he has been crying foul and decrying judges of the superior judiciary, even going to the extent recently of claiming "they have been hand in glove with dictators over the last 70 years". Not once has he answered the corruption charges against him. He conveniently forgets that not only was he sponsored into politics by a military dictator but it was the Establishment that brought him into the PM's seat in the first place. Loyalists of his political party and his family members used abusive language and openly threatened judges with dire consequences while passing snide innuendos against the Army.
There is a method behind the madness of hurling invectives against the institutions of the state - the former PM wants the delaying of his case for as long as may be possible. His appearances before the accountability court have been spread out by his choosing, having to travel to London on a very frequent basis. His latest ploy has been to announce the organization of a movement which he ironically calls the 'restoration of justice in Pakistan', we seem to have short memories about November 1997 when PML-N leaders and workers stormed the SC building forcing the then Chief Justice Syed Sajjad Ali Shah to adjourn the contempt of court case against the then PM Nawaz Sharif. How can those who physically attack the highest forum of justice in the land govern the state? Having these corruption cases linger on, on one pretext or the other, will adversely affect the upcoming elections.
The 2017 Census, the first since 1998,has changed the entire dynamics of equation in the urban and rural spheres, including job quotas, it showed the population surging to a staggering 207.8 million, an increase of 75.4 million people in 19 years with the majority of people, 52.9% living in the Punjab. Pakistan's predominant majority - 132.189 million or 63.6% - still lives in rural areas whereas Sindh came out as the most urbanised province having 52.02% population in urban areas.
Pakistan People's Party (PPP), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) and Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) in Sindh have made the 2017 census controversial by claiming that their province had been undercounted. The government agreed to a third-party audit of selected blocks equivalent to 1% the population, this was rejected by the MQM-P who demanded 5% census blocks be audited. The Council of Common Interests (CCI) had conceded to these reservations but as the exercise will now have to cover more constituencies requiring additional time and effort, it remains pending. Independent observers are of the view that six to seven months would be needed to conduct an audit for 5% blocks. On its part, the government believes this can be done in three months.
A major problem lies in the manner and timing of the Senate elections to be held. The term of Senate members is for six years, since the 2003, elections for half of the 104 seats, ie, 52 seats are to be held after every three years as the process of Senate elections is designed in such a manner that the term of half of the members expires after every three years. The next elections are scheduled to be held in March 2018. If the assembles were to elect the members of the Senate now, it will not be truly representative of the electorate because of the great changes in the census results, these elections will not depict the actual situation on ground. The first-past-the-post system ensures that a powerful minority will always come to power, this is the case in more than 80% of the seats in our National and Provincial assemblies. With majority of the people becoming frustrated about ever obtaining power under our pattern of election which favours a powerful minority, less and less people tend to go out to vote. This abstention constitutes a default by which a powerful minority is eventually transformed into a majority. With 15 million votes, less than, ie, 7.5% of the population, Nawaz Sharif claims to represent the entire electorate. Consider then what will the new Senate represent. Our electoral process must reflect true democracy; the present system is nothing but a sham and a hypocrisy. The numbers involved and the clear choice between two candidates in a "run-off vote" makes an election difficult to rig and manipulate.
Instead of making the elections controversial and adding to our problems, elections should be deferred with consultations among all stakeholders, this delay will also allow elongation of the Senate's life for a short time, maybe six months. The delay is required under the doctrine of necessity of good governance, this is not a theoretical premise but a pragmatic proposition toward off the possibility of severe problems cropping up. Whatever we do must target the ending of the present state of uncertainty.
(The writer is a defence and security analyst)
Copyright Business Recorder, 2017